It’s a lesson we all learned on the schoolyard as kids – if there’s only one kid who thought ahead and brought a ball with him, then he gets to decide what game we’re all going to play. Hearing Google’s predictions for the future of display advertising at MIXX last week (http://bit.ly/b5LQLn) makes us feel like that all over again. The difference now, of course, is that we’re not all 12 years old, and if we don’t like the game, we can head over to Dick’s and buy our own ball.
With that in mind, we’d like to point out where we agree and disagree with the big G on their predictions for the state of display by the year 2015:
50% of online ads will have an element of video in them and will be bought on a cost-per-view basis. The part about half of all ads using video could certainly be true, but we hope it isn’t! If it is, then it’s likely going to be a whole bunch of repackaged TV spots that do little, if anything, to create compelling engagement online. Until video production costs come down and/or creatives are given more freedom to unleash their brains on the medium, unique video production for online will remain either cost prohibitive or just plain bland. As for the cost-per-view part… given that they own YouTube, they are unfortunately probably right. Why unfortunately? Because CPV is a really lousy performance metric that is misleading at best (i.e., just because the video ran, does that mean it was actually watched?) and worse, tells the advertiser nothing about impact or effectiveness.
50% of all display advertising targeted to a specific audience will be bought through real-time bidding. Given Google’s continuing, Borg-like creep into display, this is a very real prospect – but it’s also one that we should all welcome. DR buyers will have greater ability to manage return, and brand buyers will be able to more accurately gauge the cost-benefit of reaching audience segments.
“Mobile will be the first screen that consumer engage with brands across.” This was an interesting moment of intentional vagary. The quote was as mentioned, but the slide read “mobile the number 1 screen.” What it felt like was that the G crew knew they needed to include mobile somehow, and yet weren’t really confident in what the claim should be:
“How about ‘number one in spend?’ ”
“No, too bold.“
“Number one in impressions?”
“Nah, that might scare people away from our desktop products.”
“OK, we’ll just say ‘first for consumers and let them think we know audiences better than them!”
While our answer, regardless, is still “doubtful!” it’s tough to argue with the glittering generality.
Five new metrics will emerge as more important than the click. This feels like fodder for Amy Poehler’s next “Really!?!” guest return to SNL. The great part here is the quote that immediately followed the slide: “some of them actually exist already today!” Yes, of course they do, and if you’re not using them, then shame on you. Our prediction is that if it’s only five, then our industry is in trouble.
75% of ads will become socially enabled. The real question here is: were they catering to Facebook and trying not to rile the competition, or setting themselves up for their inevitable next foray into creating a Google social network. Either way, we’d be shocked if this did not come true, and we welcome the opportunity to have brand advocates share compelling and engaging ad content with their friends and fellow buyers.
50% of brand campaigns will utilize rich media. The eye opening part here was Google’s sharing that just six percent of brand campaigns were using rich media last year! We certainly hope more people are using rich media display by 2015 – the creative and engagement opportunities are so tremendous. The hurdle has always been the added incremental cost of implementation. If Google can use its muscle to impact pricing in this arena, we’ll all be better served.
Authored by Tim
